economy forecast

When an economy forecast of a country is made, many variables which could affect the economy of the country over a period of years, is taken into consideration. One of the factors which could most affect the economy is the political situation in the country. Thus prediction on a country’s economy are made taking all variables, like the politics of the country, the world market condition, the value of the dollar, fuel reserves etc into account. This in turn could lead to slightly different forecasts of the economy by different agencies.

While considering the economy forecast of Ukraine we will take into account the reports of two agencies. There might be a slight discrepancy between the two, but both are of the opinion that Ukraine’s economy will grow at a moderate pace.

Initially we will look into the forecast given by the Ministry of Finance Ukraine. This forecast states that real GDP growth will be 6.5% in 2007, will increase to 7.6% in 2008 and will be 7% in 2009 and back to 6.5% in 2010. It also states that inflation or Consumer Price Index (CPI) will decrease from 107.5% in 2007 to 106.8% in 2008. It will further decrease 105.7% and 105.5% in 2009 and 2010 respectively. The Producer Price index (PPI) is projected to be 114.4% in 2007, 109.2% in 2008, 108.1% in 2009 and 107.8% in 2010. This report indicates that Industrial Production Growth which was 6.2% in 2006 would increase to 9% in 2008 and then drop to 8.3% in 2009, further dropping to 7.7% in 2010. The Agricultural Output which was 0.4% in 2006 would show a sharp increase to 5% in 2008 and then a further increase to 6.4% and 6.6% in 2009 and 2010 respectively. Balance of Goods and Services would increase from 2,228 million USD in 2008 to 5,558 million USD in 2010. Exports of Goods and Services however, would not show much of a change from 2007 to 2010 and would stay around 112.7%. Imports of Goods and Services, on the other hand, will see an increase from 594.1% in 2007 to 708% in 2008, 820.4% in 2009 and 939.9% in 2010.                                                                                                                                               ›› more

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